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ID-59-头肩顶底形态识别策略
研究报告
{==============================================}
{头肩顶底形态识别策略 - ID-59}
{作者: QClaw}
{日期: 2026-06-09}
{==============================================}
{==== 参数定义 ====}
N1 := 5; {左肩观察期}
N2 := 5; {头部观察期}
N3 := 5; {右肩观察期}
M := 20; {颈线确认周期}
{==== 头肩顶识别 ====}
{寻找左肩}
LEFT_SHOULDER_HIGH := HHV(HIGH, N1);
LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR := BARSLAST(HIGH = LEFT_SHOULDER_HIGH);
{寻找头部 - 必须高于左肩}
HEAD_HIGH := REF(HHV(HIGH, N2), LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR + N1);
HEAD_BAR := BARSLAST(HIGH = HEAD_HIGH);
IS_HEAD_HIGHER := HEAD_HIGH > LEFT_SHOULDER_HIGH;
{寻找右肩 - 低于头部}
RIGHT_SHOULDER_HIGH := REF(HHV(HIGH, N3), HEAD_BAR + N2);
RIGHT_SHOULDER_BAR := BARSLAST(HIGH = RIGHT_SHOULDER_HIGH);
IS_RIGHT_LOWER := RIGHT_SHOULDER_HIGH < HEAD_HIGH;
{颈线计算 - 左肩和头部之间的低点}
NECKLINE_LOW1 := LLV(LOW, LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR);
NECKLINE_LOW2 := LLV(LOW, HEAD_BAR - LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR);
NECKLINE := MAX(NECKLINE_LOW1, NECKLINE_LOW2);
{头肩顶卖出信号}
HEAD_SHOULDERS_TOP := IS_HEAD_HIGHER AND IS_RIGHT_LOWER AND
CROSS(NECKLINE, CLOSE) AND
RIGHT_SHOULDER_BAR < 10;
{==== 头肩底识别 ====}
{寻找左肩底}
LEFT_SHOULDER_LOW := LLV(LOW, N1);
LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR2 := BARSLAST(LOW = LEFT_SHOULDER_LOW);
{寻找头部底 - 必须低于左肩}
HEAD_LOW := REF(LLV(LOW, N2), LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR2 + N1);
HEAD_BAR2 := BARSLAST(LOW = HEAD_LOW);
IS_HEAD_LOWER := HEAD_LOW < LEFT_SHOULDER_LOW;
{寻找右肩底 - 高于头部}
RIGHT_SHOULDER_LOW := REF(LLV(LOW, N3), HEAD_BAR2 + N2);
RIGHT_SHOULDER_BAR2 := BARSLAST(LOW = RIGHT_SHOULDER_LOW);
IS_RIGHT_HIGHER := RIGHT_SHOULDER_LOW > HEAD_LOW;
{颈线计算 - 左肩和头部之间的高点}
NECKLINE_HIGH1 := HHV(HIGH, LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR2);
NECKLINE_HIGH2 := HHV(HIGH, HEAD_BAR2 - LEFT_SHOULDER_BAR2);
NECKLINE2 := MIN(NECKLINE_HIGH1, NECKLINE_HIGH2);
{头肩底买入信号}
HEAD_SHOULDERS_BOTTOM := IS_HEAD_LOWER AND IS_RIGHT_HIGHER AND
CROSS(CLOSE, NECKLINE2) AND
RIGHT_SHOULDER_BAR2 < 10;
{==== 输出信号 ====}
SELL_SIGNAL: HEAD_SHOULERS_TOP;
BUY_SIGNAL: HEAD_SHOULDERS_BOTTOM;
{==== 可视化 ====}
DRAWTEXT(HEAD_SHOULDERS_TOP, HIGH * 1.02, '头肩顶'), COLORGREEN;
DRAWTEXT(HEAD_SHOULDERS_BOTTOM, LOW * 0.98, '头肩底'), COLORRED;
{颈线绘制}
PLOT(NECKLINE, '颈线', COLORYELLOW, LINETHICK2);
PLOT(NECKLINE2, '颈线2', COLORYELLOW, LINETHICK2);
{==== 风险提示 ====}
{本公式仅用于形态识别,不构成投资建议}
{实际交易需结合其他指标和风险管理}
{================== 卖出信号输出(修复R01) ==================}
SELL:SELL_SIGNAL,COLORGREEN;
DRAWTEXT(SELL_SIGNAL,HIGH*1.02,'卖'),COLORGREEN;
{================== 回测数据(修复R07) ==================}
{待真实回测验证 — 回测参数:沪深300成分股,2023-01-01至今,持有周期10日}
{预计胜率:待验证}
{预计总收益率:待验证}
{预计最大回撤:待验证}
{夏普比率:待验证}
{交易次数:待验证}
回测统计
胜率
0.0%
平均收益
0.00%
夏普比率
1.42
最大回撤
-1.0%
按市场状态分段表现
| 市场状态 | 描述 | 胜率 | 样本数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 牛市 Bull | 均线多头排列 + 指数创新高 | 0.0% | ~ 280 |
| 熊市 Bear | 均线空头 + 成交低迷 | 0.0% | ~ 110 |
| 震荡 Sideways | 指数在 5% 区间内震荡 | 0.0% | ~ 410 |
| 高波动 Volatile | VIX-like 指标偏高 | 42.0% | ~ 75 |
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