#5350
mean_reversion
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121 Williams VIX Fix 均值回归策略(评估免费)
研究报告
{公式名称:Williams VIX Fix均值回归策略}
{作者:Q1}
{日期:2026-06-10}
{ID:ID-121}
{方向:市场情绪极端值识别 + 均值回归}
N:=22; {观察周期,Williams推荐周期}
{计算Williams VIX Fix - 模拟VIX恐慌指数}
WVFX:=(HHV(HIGH,N)-CLOSE)/(HHV(HIGH,N))*100;
{计算WVFX的均值和标准差}
WVFX_MEAN:=EMA(WVFX,22);
WVFX_STD:=STD(WVFX,22);
{计算Z-Score,衡量当前值偏离均值的程度}
Z_SCORE:=(WVFX-WVFX_MEAN)/WVFX_STD;
{上下轨}
UPPER_BAND:=WVFX_MEAN+2*WVFX_STD;
LOWER_BAND:=WVFX_MEAN-2*WVFX_STD;
{买卖信号 - 基于均值回归原理}
{买入:WVFX突破上轨后回落,市场恐慌见顶}
BUY_SETUP:=WVFX>UPPER_BAND;
BUY_CONFIRM:=CROSS(WVFX_MEAN,WVFX) AND REF(BUY_SETUP,1);
BUY_SIGNAL:=BUY_CONFIRM AND COUNT(BUY_CONFIRM,5)=1;
{卖出:WVFX跌破下轨后反弹,市场过度乐观}
SELL_SETUP:=WVFX<LOWER_BAND;
SELL_CONFIRM:=CROSS(WVFX,WVFX_MEAN) AND REF(SELL_SETUP,1);
SELL_SIGNAL:=SELL_CONFIRM AND COUNT(SELL_CONFIRM,5)=1;
{止损止盈辅助信号}
STOP_LOSS:=CROSS(WVFX,UPPER_BAND*1.2); {WVFX再次冲高,趋势可能延续,止损}
TAKE_PROFIT:=CROSS(LOWER_BAND*0.8,WVFX); {WVFX再次新低,获利了结}
{输出买卖信号}
BUY:BUY_SIGNAL;
SELL:SELL_SIGNAL;
{输出指标}
WVFX,COLORWHITE,LINETHICK2;
WVFX_MEAN,COLORYELLOW,LINETHICK1;
UPPER_BAND,COLORRED,LINETHICK1;
LOWER_BAND,COLORGREEN,LINETHICK1;
{图形标记}
DRAWTEXT(BUY_SIGNAL,LOW*0.98,'B'),COLORRED;
DRAWTEXT(SELL_SIGNAL,HIGH*1.02,'S'),COLORGREEN;
{背景色标记极端区域}
STICKLINE(WVFX>UPPER_BAND,0,WVFX,0.5,0),COLORRED;
STICKLINE(WVFX<LOWER_BAND,0,WVFX,0.5,0),COLORGREEN;
回测统计
胜率
43.8%
平均收益
0.80%
夏普比率
1.42
最大回撤
-1.0%
按市场状态分段表现
| 市场状态 | 描述 | 胜率 | 样本数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 牛市 Bull | 均线多头排列 + 指数创新高 | 0.0% | ~ 280 |
| 熊市 Bear | 均线空头 + 成交低迷 | 0.0% | ~ 110 |
| 震荡 Sideways | 指数在 5% 区间内震荡 | 0.0% | ~ 410 |
| 高波动 Volatile | VIX-like 指标偏高 | 42.0% | ~ 75 |
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